The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the latest estimates for India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July-September) of the financial year 2024-25. This press release provides a comprehensive overview of the country’s economic performance, highlighting key growth metrics and sectoral contributions.
Key Highlights
- Overall GDP Growth:
- Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 5.4% in Q2 of FY 2024-25, compared to 8.1% in the same quarter of the previous financial year.
- Nominal GDP for Q2 2024-25 is estimated at ₹76.60 lakh crore, showing an 8.0% growth from ₹70.90 lakh crore in Q2 2023-24.
- Gross Value Added (GVA):
- Real GVA has grown by 5.6% in Q2 of FY 2024-25, down from 7.7% in Q2 of the previous year.
- Nominal GVA has seen an 8.1% growth, reaching ₹69.54 lakh crore in Q2 2024-25 from ₹64.35 lakh crore in Q2 2023-24.
- Sectoral Performance:
- Agriculture and Allied Sectors: This sector has rebounded with a growth rate of 3.5% in Q2 2024-25 after experiencing sub-optimal growth in the previous four quarters.
- Manufacturing and Mining: The manufacturing sector grew by 2.2%, while the mining and quarrying sector saw a slight decline of 0.1%.
- Construction: The construction sector showed robust growth, with rates of 7.7% in Q2 and 9.1% in the first half (H1) of FY 2024-25, driven by sustained domestic consumption of finished steel.
- Tertiary Sector: This sector observed a growth rate of 7.1% in Q2 2024-25, up from 6.0% in the same quarter of the previous year. Notably, trade, hotels, transport, communication, and services related to broadcasting grew by 6.0%.
- Consumption Expenditure:
- Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE): PFCE grew by 6.0% in Q2 and 6.7% in H1 of FY 2024-25, compared to 2.6% and 4.0% in the corresponding periods of the previous year.
- Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE): GFCE rebounded with a growth rate of 4.4% after experiencing negative or low growth in the previous three quarters.
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Detailed Analysis
The press release from the National Statistics Office (NSO) provides a detailed breakdown of the GDP and GVA estimates, highlighting the performance of various sectors and expenditure components. The data indicates a mixed performance across different sectors, with some showing robust growth while others lag behind.
- Agriculture and Allied Sectors: The recovery in this sector is a positive sign, indicating resilience and potential for future growth. The improved performance can be attributed to favorable weather conditions and effective government policies.
- Manufacturing and Mining: The sluggish growth in manufacturing and the slight decline in mining highlight the challenges faced by these sectors, including supply chain disruptions and fluctuating demand.
- Construction: The strong growth in construction reflects increased infrastructure development and investment, which are crucial for long-term economic growth.
- Tertiary Sector: The significant growth in the tertiary sector underscores the importance of services in driving economic growth. This sector’s performance is vital for job creation and overall economic stability.
Additional Statistics
- Quarterly Estimates and Growth Rates:
- Real GDP at Constant Prices in Q2 of 2024-25 is estimated at ₹44.10 lakh crore, against ₹41.86 lakh crore in Q2 of 2023-24.
- Nominal GDP at Current Prices in Q2 of 2024-25 is estimated at ₹76.60 lakh crore, against ₹70.90 lakh crore in Q2 of 2023-24.
- Real GVA in Q2 of 2024-25 is estimated at ₹40.58 lakh crore, against ₹38.42 lakh crore in Q2 of 2023-24.
- Nominal GVA in Q2 of 2024-25 is estimated at ₹69.54 lakh crore, against ₹64.35 lakh crore in Q2 of 2023-24.
- Half-Yearly Estimates and Growth Rates:
- Real GDP at Constant Prices in April-September of 2024-25 (H1 2024-25) is estimated at ₹87.74 lakh crore, against ₹82.77 lakh crore in H1 of 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 6.0%.
- Nominal GDP at Current Prices in H1 2024-25 is estimated at ₹153.91 lakh crore, against ₹141.40 lakh crore in H1 of 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 8.9%.
- Real GVA in H1 of 2024-25 is estimated at ₹81.30 lakh crore, against ₹76.54 lakh crore in H1 of 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 6.2%.
- Nominal GVA in H1 of 2024-25 is estimated at ₹139.78 lakh crore, against ₹128.31 lakh crore in H1 of 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 8.9%.
- Sectoral Growth Rates:
- Primary Sector: Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishing, and Mining & Quarrying.
- Secondary Sector: Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water supply & Other Utility Services, and Construction.
- Tertiary Sector: Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting, Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services, and Public Administration, Defence & Other Services.
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Future Outlook
The press release also provides insights into the future outlook for India’s economy. The first advance estimates of annual GDP for FY 2024-25 will be released on January 7, 2025, and the quarterly GDP estimates for Q3 2024-25 will be available on February 28, 2025. These upcoming releases will provide further clarity on the economic trajectory and help in formulating effective policy measures.
Conclusion
The latest GDP estimates for Q2 FY 2024-25 highlight the resilience and potential of India’s economy. While there are challenges in certain sectors, the overall growth trajectory remains positive. Continued focus on infrastructure development, effective policy implementation, and addressing sector-specific challenges will be crucial for sustaining and enhancing economic growth in the coming quarters.
